Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Seager homered to right center (387 feet), Nimmo scored.4–6
- 8Lewis homered to center (412 feet).2–6
- 8Díaz homered to left center (402 feet).2–5
- 5Clemens singled to center, Keaschall scored, Jeffers to second, Bell to third.1–5
- 5Jeffers walked, Jenkins scored, Bell to second, Keaschall to third.1–4
- 3Bell homered to right (366 feet), Keaschall scored.1–3
- 3Jansen homered to left center (385 feet).1–1
- 1Bell hit sacrifice fly to center, Keaschall scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML TEX -115 / MIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −3 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +3 Elo | MIN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 21st of 3035–45 | Road vs home | 41–3816th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Elo rating | 147124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–87 | 81–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–57 | 21–41 |
| Underdog | 41–30 | 60–39 |
| Overs–unders | 83–67–11 | 86–63–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 8–17 MIN in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.