Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Carlos JorgeBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Charles McAdooBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8McAdoo homered to center (446 feet).1–5
- 3Schneider grounded out to third, Bateman scored, Okamoto to third.1–4
- 3McAdoo hit sacrifice fly to right, Keys scored.1–3
- 3Jorge singled to center, Cabrera scored.1–2
- 2Valenzuela homered to center (409 feet), Schneider scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML CIN +141 / TOR -171
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.8%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -152
- CIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −2 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +33 Elo | TOR 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 3037–43 | Road vs home | 41–3917th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 25th of 301469 | Elo rating | 150313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–81 | 81–80 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 32–52 |
| Underdog | 64–51 | 49–28 |
| Overs–unders | 84–73–4 | 81–75–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–6 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.