Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jose SiriBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kade AndersonPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Crawford homered to right (403 feet), Ward scored.4–8
- 7Ward singled to center, Young scored and Arroyo scored.4–6
- 6Siri grounded out to third, Teodosio scored, Trout to second, Heineman to third.4–4
- 6Heineman hit sacrifice bunt, Meckler scored, Teodosio to third.3–4
- 6Teodosio singled to center, Guzman scored. Moore scored, Teodosio safe at second, Meckler safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Arozarena.2–4
- 5Young singled to center, Canzone scored on error, Young safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Teodosio, Naylor safe at third on error.0–4
- 5Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to first, Arozarena scored.0–3
- 4Rivas hit sacrifice fly to center, Young scored.0–2
- 2Montes hit a ground rule double, Young scored, Arroyo to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML LAA +134 / SEA -163
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.9%, market 59.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -145
- LAA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.1 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +13 | LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Kade Anderson: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +62 Elo | SEA 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–51 | Road vs home | 41–3815th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–85 | 61–99 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 9–30 | 36–76 |
| Underdog | 66–55 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders | 69–87–4 | 83–67–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 23–27 SEA in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 50.