Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jose SiriBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rivas scored on Peralta wild pitch.3–7
- 8Rivas scored on Peralta wild pitch.3–7
- 8Siri homered to left (360 feet), Neto scored.3–6
- 6Arozarena doubled to left, Pereda scored and We. Wilson scored.1–6
- 6Young scored on error, We. Wilson safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Guzman, Pereda safe at third on error.1–4
- 6Grissom hit sacrifice fly to right, Teodosio scored, Neto to third.1–3
- 3Naylor grounded out to second, Canzone scored, Raleigh to second.0–3
- 3Raleigh singled to right, Arozarena scored, Canzone to third.0–2
- 2We. Wilson grounded out to third, Young scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML LAA +137 / SEA -166
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.8%, market 59.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -148
- LAA +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.1 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +15 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +91 Elo | SEA 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–52 | Road vs home | 42–3814th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 148321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–86 | 62–99 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–30 | 37–76 |
| Underdog | 66–56 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders | 70–87–4 | 84–67–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 23–28 SEA in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 51.