Main eventHeavyweight5 rounds
11-2 UFC · rating 1,629 · #1 Heavyweight
67%
-230
4-0 UFC · rating 1,451 · #8 Heavyweight
33%
+190
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
UFC
UFC predictions
Win chances for every fight on the card, fighter ratings for every division, and a record of how it all held up. With a betting line, the chance is the market's with the bookmaker's cut removed: in UFC, nothing we tested beat it.
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
· · Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Co-main eventWomen's Bantamweight5 rounds
3-0 UFC · rating 1,434 · #3 Women's Bantamweight
60%
-166
16-2 UFC · rating 1,583
40%
+140
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Middleweight3 rounds
8-1 UFC · rating 1,503 · #8 Middleweight
59%
-162
3-0 UFC · rating 1,408 · #18 Middleweight
41%
+136
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Welterweight3 rounds
8-3 UFC · rating 1,454 · #15 Welterweight
58%
-155
16-12 UFC · rating 1,406 · #23 Welterweight
42%
+130
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Flyweight3 rounds
1-0 UFC · rating 1,308
88%
-1050
1-4 UFC · rating 1,139 · #41 Flyweight
12%
+675
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Welterweight3 rounds
12-9-1 UFC · rating 1,369 · #34 Welterweight
56%
-142
5-2 UFC · rating 1,331 · #40 Welterweight
44%
+120
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Lightweight3 rounds
15-11 UFC · rating 1,369 · #32 Lightweight
38%
+154
6-2 UFC · rating 1,391 · #29 Lightweight
62%
-185
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Lightweight3 rounds
28-18 UFC · rating 1,416 · #19 Lightweight
36%
+170
8-6 UFC · rating 1,314 · #47 Lightweight
64%
-205
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Catch Weight3 rounds
3-0 UFC · rating 1,370 · #27 Middleweight
62%
-185
3-3 UFC · rating 1,255 · #48 Middleweight
38%
+154
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Lightweight3 rounds
9-8 UFC · rating 1,309 · #50 Lightweight
23%
+320
7-3 UFC · rating 1,413 · #20 Lightweight
77%
-410
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Women's Bantamweight3 rounds
8-6 UFC · rating 1,300 · #14 Women's Bantamweight
30%
+215
3-0 UFC · rating 1,386 · #8 Women's Bantamweight
70%
-265
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Bantamweight3 rounds
6-3-1 UFC · rating 1,342 · #30 Bantamweight
23%
+320
1-0 UFC · rating 1,315
77%
-410
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Lightweight3 rounds
3-2 UFC · rating 1,261
48%
-102
UFC debut
52%
-118
Betting market, margin removedBreakdown
Coming up
- UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · 9 fights listed
- UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Magomedov · 12 fights listed
- UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes · 6 fights listed
- UFC Fight Night: Dallas · 2 fights listed
- UFC 336: Van vs. Kape · 4 fights listed
- UFC Fight Night: Salkilld vs. Saint Denis · 8 fights listed
Latest results
- UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Johnny Walker9 of 14 called right
- UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan9 of 12 called right
- UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev10 of 14 called right
- UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott7 of 13 called right
- UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan4 of 11 called right
- UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong12 of 13 called right
Fighter ratings by division
From UFC results alone: every win moves a fighter up by how surprising it was. Active fighters with three or more UFC fights. A guide to who has beaten whom, not a forecast: as one, the ratings have been well behind the betting market.
Heavyweight
- 1
Ciryl Gane1,629 - 2
Alexander Volkov1,593 - 3
Alex Pereira1,577 - 4
Tom Aspinall1,561 - 5Sergei Pavlovich1,518
Light Heavyweight
- 1Magomed Ankalaev1,585
- 2
Carlos Ulberg1,569 - 3
Robert Whittaker1,530 - 4
Dominick Reyes1,498 - 5
Jiří Procházka1,478
Middleweight
- 1
Dricus Du Plessis1,632 - 2Brendan Allen1,591
- 3
Khamzat Chimaev1,587 - 4Sean Strickland1,583
- 5
Kamaru Usman1,582
Welterweight
- 1Islam Makhachev1,778
- 2Max Holloway1,634
- 3Carlos Prates1,566
- 4
Michael Morales1,557 - 5Sean Brady1,547
Lightweight
- 1Charles Oliveira1,649
- 2Justin Gaethje1,619
- 3
Ilia Topuria1,600 - 4
Arman Tsarukyan1,599 - 5Dustin Poirier1,540
Featherweight
- 1Alexander Volkanovski1,657
- 2Aljamain Sterling1,618
- 3Movsar Evloev1,553
- 4Lerone Murphy1,509
- 5Arnold Allen1,506
Bantamweight
- 1Petr Yan1,605
- 2Merab Dvalishvili1,574
- 3Sean O'Malley1,565
- 4
Song Yadong1,563 - 5Mario Bautista1,535
Flyweight
- 1
Joshua Van1,573 - 2Alexandre Pantoja1,492
- 3
Manel Kape1,486 - 4
Tatsuro Taira1,460 - 5
Asu Almabayev1,448
Women's Bantamweight
- 1Luana Santos1,457
- 2
Ailin Perez1,435 - 3Kayla Harrison1,434
- 4
Joselyne Edwards1,416 - 5Julianna Peña1,412
Women's Flyweight
- 1
Valentina Shevchenko1,595 - 2Natalia Silva1,538
- 3Zhang Weili1,527
- 4
Alexa Grasso1,489 - 5
Jasmine Jasudavicius1,482
Women's Strawweight
- 1Tatiana Suarez1,550
- 2Mackenzie Dern1,470
- 3Denise Gomes1,441
- 4Virna Jandiroba1,433
- 5Gillian Robertson1,425
How the forecasts have done
Every UFC fight since 2019 with a winner, graded against what each forecast said beforehand. With a line, a forecast here is the betting market's chance with the bookmaker's cut taken out: across 103 fights, the market picked 68% of winners and our ratings only 46%, and mixing the ratings in made it worse, so they don't move the number.
Betting market
68.0%
70 of 103 fights with a line
Our ratings alone
55.9%
2,225 of 3,981 fights, ratings set on 2006–2018
Locked before each fight
—
Grading starts with the first card after the UFC section opened (Nov 2026)
Favorites, by their chance
How often the market's favorite won, against the chance its price gave. Big favorites have won a little more often than their prices said: the long-known favorite–longshot lean, small enough that adjusting for it didn't hold up year to year.
| Favorite's chance | Fights | Priced at | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 16 | 52.6% | 56.3% |
| 55–60% | 14 | 57.1% | 71.4% |
| 60–65% | 17 | 63.0% | 64.7% |
| 65–70% | 15 | 67.1% | 60.0% |
| 70–75% | 17 | 72.6% | 64.7% |
| 75–80% | 9 | 77.2% | 77.8% |
| 80–85% | 11 | 82.2% | 90.9% |
| 85–90% | 4 | 87.8% | 75.0% |